Stress: Retirement Worries

CINCINNATI BUSINESS COURIER
April 17 – 23, 1989

Investments
By Charles D. Vaughan

Stress: Retirement Worries can be cut by Planning Early

WHAT WILL BECOME OF ME?
This question leaps to mind whenever we experience any great stress. When a traumatic event brushes a person’s life, it creates a feeling of lack of control. This, in turn, leads to a feeling of general insecurity.

Psychologist H. Abraham Maslow described a hierarchy of needs ranging from basic food, shelter and safety to love and self esteem. He argued that those who lacked the basics, including a safe environment, were hindered in dealing with higher needs. Thus, a person feeling very unsafe or unsettled may revert to excessive concern over personal well being.

Studies have shown that retirement is one of the most stressful periods of a person’s life. While we are working, we feel in control of our financial circumstances. This makes us feel in control of other aspects of our lives as well. When we cease to function as a human money machine, we have to rely on something else. We are no longer in absolute control, that may be why even affluent people become concerned about very basic needs when contemplating retirement. The list of questions which come up in planning for retirement is long. But, most of these questions come back to that one issue, “What will become of me?” This question goes far beyond mere material goods, but often does involve money. There are five basic financial aspects of this issue:

1. Will I have enough money to support my current lifestyle or will I have to reduce my standard of living? The answer to this ‘gets very complicated because it depends on so many variables. If we knew exactly how long a person would live, how much money they need to live, what rates of return could be earned and what the inflation rate would be, we could give a simple answer. Unfortunately, none of these factors can be forecast accurately. The best approach is to overestimate living expenses and inflation rates and underestimate income sources. It is also important to review progress periodically to see if adjustments must be made.

2. Will my invested dollars be safe? This begs another question  safe from what? Guarantees only cover fixed dollars, not what those dollars will buy. There is no perfect investment that will protect us against all risks. That is why it is so important to balance investments among areas that have different risk protection. That is also why it is important to diversify.

3. If my health declines, will I have adequate resources to get good care? This may be the number one fear of the elderly. Too many people of ample means have been wiped out by medical bills. The new catastrophic medical care legislation should go a long way toward relieving this fear. It is very important to carefully review Medicare and other coverage. Much of the Medicare gap insurance that is bought out of fear is of little practical value. Few professionals have the expertise to help in this important field; so it is important to do your homework.

4. If I “live too long” will I run out of money and end up in a charity home? This is a real concern for many people as life expectancy increases. The ravage of inflation, even at modest rates, is great over long spans of time. What may be adequate now could be a pittance in 40 years. The best protection is to keep early retirement spending below income to build reserves for later. Nursing home coverage under Medicare is practically nonexistent. It is now possible to buy longterm health care coverage from private insurers. Those with a great concern should investigate it.

5. If something happens to me, will my family be provided for? Too many people fail to look at the spousal benefits of pensions and Social Security when planning retirement. In many cases, the surviving spouse may get only half of the previous income. This may force a big cutback in living standard for the survivor. Proper planning early in the process can make up for this shortage. Insurance coverage or investments may be set up specifically for this need.

Uncertainty is a big part of life. There is no way to be sure that everything will be all right. It is possible, however, to reduce the stress surrounding some big life events. Retirement is probably the best example of that. Unless one is forced to retire several years early, the stress level can be kept to a minimum.

With careful planning several years in advance of expected retirement, the number of worries can be cut substantially. Even if you don’t have the complete answer, you may not feel the need to ask the question as often.

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Debt Gets Deeper, Challenge Gets Bigger

CINCINNATI BUSINESS COURIER
March 20-26, 1989

Investments
By Charles D. Vaughan

Debt Gets Deeper, Challenge Gets Bigger

You load 16 tons and what do you  get ?
Another day older and deeper in debt.

This refrain from a 1950s Tennessee Ernie Ford song may set the tune for world economics in the 1990s. Debt in its many forms is the number one economic challenge of the next decade.

How we deal with it may determine not only our standard of living, but possibly whether we are at peace or at war. We read daily of the savings and loan and bond crisis. We hear  constant chatter from Washington about how to deal with the federal deficit. These are merely Trivial Pursuit when compared with the problems of Third World debt.

In our comfortable “ostrich stance” it is easy for us to ask, “What has that to do with me?” It isn’t my problem that greedy Latin American politicians took advantage of overzealous bankers several years ago. Exactly! That’s what the residents of those countries are now saying  in even louder tones.

Latin American countries alone owe more than $400 billion to foreign (mainly U.S.) banks. The problem they can’t pay. Chile is a good example. Its debt of $21 billion is 113 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Crushing austerity programs set up to appease foreign bankers are causing people to rebel.

St. Peter, don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go.
I owe my soul to the company store,

Left wing politicians see this as an opportunity to take over. They campaign on a platform of debt repudiation. The recent efforts to poison fruit, Chile’s second largest export, are thought to be a Communist effort to bring down the fragile economy.

For many countries no amount of refinancing, debt extension or other hocus-pocus can alter the fact that they are broke. The effects are devastating. Inflation runs rampant while economies wither. Those who watch our domestic growth rate as a sign of inflation should look south of the border.

Argentina ($55 billion debt equal to 79 percent of GDP) is facing a downward spiral in its economy along with a 400 percent inflation rate. Matters are worse still for Peru ($18 billion debt equal to 49 percent of GDP)  a shrinking economy and a 1,700 percent inflation rate. Perhaps we should listen to Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman who said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” It is rooted in excessive levels of debt. As always, governments will ultimately monetize it. That is they will in some fashion print money to make up for debt. The problem may belong to the bankers, but rest assured, the solution will be found in your pocket.

Our theories of growth and inflation are based on out national experience. We have virtually always been a creditor nation. In the past few years, we have joined the debtors  in a big way. As debtors, we now face the reality of running to stay even. Inflation may be merely monetary, but its effects are real.

By allowing foreign bankers to support our buy now- pay later economy, we have lost our status as bankers to the world economy. The majority of the top 10 banks in the world are now in Japan. The trend continues. Latin American debtors are now in a position of being able to topple our banking system, We will have to deal with them. The Reagan administration plan to lend more to our debtors to help them grow out of debt failed. The Bush administration plan to give lenders an incentive to reduce debt may help. In the end, those who can’t pay, won’t. You will.

On the other hand, our foreign creditors will expect full payment with interest. We will pay. The price to our economy from the combination of failing debtors and strong creditors may be high. We may get a taste of higher inflation and slower growth. The result is lower standard of living on a national level.

Those who continue to think in terms of our previous position in the world economy will lose ground. Those realistic enough to watch and react to unfolding trends should be able to keep pace. The first step is to view economics as being global. An increasing percentage of our domestic assets is moving into foreign hands. The second step is to be brutally realistic. In one way or another, our government is going to spend $100 billion or more to bail out the banking system. It will not be done through increased taxes, but through the only unlegislated tax  inflation. The third step is to realize that you can offset the effects of these trends by a partial reallocation of investment assets. If you can sit still, you will probably lose ground.

You load 16 tons of number nine coal.
And the straw boss says, “Well bless my soul. ”

 

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