Hedge Against Inflation

CINCINNATI BUSINESS COURIER
November 7-13,1988

Investments
By Charles D. Vaughan

Best hedge against inflation – Study history

WANNA BET?
That’s the time honored way to settle disputes in our society. Some of these bets are socalled “sucker bets.” You may recall Sky Masterson, hero of Damon Runyon’s musical “Guys and Dolls,” declining such a bet with a warning from his father not to bet against any guy who proposed that a fish would jump out of a fountain and squirt water in his ear. Fair warning; you may get a wet ear. I’ll bet you can’t answer a few simple questions about inflation.
1.) Historically, in the United States, is a 4 percent annual compound inflation rate “reasonably low?”
2.) What’s the highest one year inflation rate in the history of our land?
3.) What’s the highest one year U.S. inflation rate since the Civil War?
4.) What country had the all time highest hyperinflation rate?
5.) During what period were there more worldwide hyperinflations than any other in history?

Give yourself 20 points for each correct answer. That means those you got right before you read the rest of this article:

1.) Are you kidding? Since 1720, the average annual compound inflation rate in this land has been about 1.25 percent. Over a long time a 4 percent rate would be catastrophic. For example in 100 years it would mean a 50-fold increase in prices compared with the 27-fold rise between 1720 and 1985.

2.) The highest one year rate in our land was 396 percent in 1776 which gave rise to the expression “not worth a Continental” as the currency was then known. After the Revolutionary War, the currency was completely reformed causing the largest one year drop in inflation of 97 percent.

3.) The highest rate that has occurred since the Revolution was during the Civil War with the rate reaching 30.75 percent in 1861. For most countries the highest rates have occurred during wartime. But, the second highest rate for the United States was in 1979 when prices rose 13.3 percent followed by a 12.4 percent rate the next year.

4.) A hyperinflation is a sizable, uncollected rise in the price level. Most people are aware of the German inflation of 1921-1923 when prices rose 50-billionfold in 28 months. Most of us have seen pictures of people with a wheelbarrow going to buy a loaf of bread. Well, this was peanuts compared with the post World War II, hyperinflation in Hungary. In the single year 1946 prices rose four octrillion to one (an octrillion is one (1) followed by 27 zeros). Printing was a good business to be in.

5.) Throughout history there have been relatively few instances of hyperinflation. Since the 1970s a number of Lesser Developed Countries have accepted a constant high rate of inflation as a fact of life. There are as many hyperinflations going on right now as there have been in all previous recorded history. This should make a dramatic statement to those who believe that only wars or strong economic growth create inflation.

Scoring is simple. If you got a 20, you are better than average. If you got a 40, you beat me before I did this column. If you got 60 or more, you either cheated or you wrote the book I just read.

Study of historic price level inflation has very meaningful implications for all of us today. One of the reasons that inflation rates have been relatively low during most of the period covered by international records was probably that currencies were backed by precious metals. Wartime inflations were followed by violent deflations as currencies got back in line. For better or worse, there is no “anchor” as gold used to be to keep us from drifting.

Modern economic policies permit governments to persistently spend more than they collect in taxes and many countries have mortgaged their productivity beyond any reasonable expectation of repayment. It is not unreasonable now to believe that a 3 percent to 4 percent base level of Inflation is OK. But, it also is not outlandish to think that some period of rapid inflation is possible again in the next decade or two.

Study of historical data suggests that common stocks, contrary to popular belief, have not been an effective hedge against rapid inflation. Investors who do not learn to use proven inflation hedge strategies are betting against the odds.

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Ponzi’s Story & Why His Scheme Still Works

CINCINNATI BUSINESS COURIER
October 24-30, 1988

Investments
By Charles D. Vaughan

Ponzi’s Story and Why His Scheme Still Works

TRUE CLASSICS  the Pierce-Arrow, Duesenberg, Cord, Packard and Locomobile. These five vintage autos are currently being featured on a set of 25 cent stamps by the Postal Service.

In his heyday the infamous Charles Ponzi was seen motoring around Boston in his cream colored Locomobile, one classic deserves another. Few people would now recognize the name of the car, but his name attached to the word “scheme” will live in infamy. Virtually nobody could tell you when Ponzi was active or what exactly was his famous scheme. I thought perhaps having a little knowledge of the original masterwork might be helpful in recognizing present and future copies.

Our anti-hero was born in Italy with the name Bianchi, emigrated to Canada and was first convicted of fraud there in 1907. Finding Canadian hospitality lacking, he moved to Boston and adopted his now famous name. Having mild success with a series of minor scams perpetrated on the immigrant population, he accidentally hit upon the motherlode. In a letter from a friend in Spain was an International Postal Reply Coupon, which I’ll call an IPRC for short.

He noticed that the coupon could be redeemed in stamps in the United States for six times what his friend had paid in pesetas in Spain. BINGO! The idea light went on in Ponzi’s mind.

The IPRCs were redeemable in stamps at exchange rates that were fixed by the governments of participating countries. Ponzi could see the possibilities of buying bales and bales of IPRCs in a country with a completely collapsed currency then taking them to a strong currency country to redeem them for stamps which would then be wholesaled. This could be done over and over indefinitely for huge profits.

He formed The Securities and Exchange Company in 1919 and began raising money among his fellow immigrants in Boston by promising to pay 40 percent interest for 90 day deposits. This was considered not too shabby compared with the 5 percent prevailing rate on bank deposits. In February of 1920, he raised his rates to 50 percent for 45 days and 100 percent for 90 days and he and his six clerks could not handle the deluge of cash that came in so fast they had to stack it to the ceiling in his office. He had no trouble paying off early investors with money received from newcomers. Naturally, as investors were paid off they promptly reinvested in the same profitable venture.

Ponzi made an opulent show in his Locomobile and bought interests in banks, steamships, movie houses and importexport businesses. He was philanthropist and role model for other immigrants until July when the Boston Post pointed out that there were not enough IPRCs sold in the whole world to support Ponzi’s enterprise. The ensuing, run was briefly stemmed when Ponzi sued the Post and declared another $100 million offering. But the coup de grace came when the Post ran Ponzi’s Canadian mug shot. He went back to prison and ultimately died in poverty and disgrace. Subsequent investigations showed that his International Postal Reply Coupon purchases totaled a whopping $30.

The Ponzi Scheme works over and over for several reasons. First, the scheme, whether it is rock concert tickets or construction loans, sounds feasible. Second, certain people are naturally greedy and want it to be true that they can make an instant fortune. Third, when early investors do get large payoffs, the word-of-mouth advertising causes the bandwagon psychology to set in. Finally, people are reluctant to challenge the enterprise because we all want to believe that “nothing succeeds like success.”

Con men rely on associating themselves with legitimacy. That is why many recent crooks have been found under the label “financial planners.” To date there are no absolute requirements for using this generic term. The Securities and Exchange Commission states that those using it to give investment advice must register, but enforcement is impossible. States are slowly getting into the act.

Ponzi Schemes rely on a steady flow of new investors to pay off old investors. Seldom can they stand up to close scrutiny. The first line of defense is to ask for a full disclosure of these facts and any conflicts of interest the principals may have. Legitimate operators treat these requests as routine: con men get offended.

The best defense may be to ask yourself this classic question, “If there is any loose money lying on the ground, why would somebody pick it up and put it in my pocket?”

 

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